* Important Note - Nestor is a very lopsided system with nearly all of its shower and thunderstorm activity located to its east and north. Much of these impacts will come continue to come ashore in Florida and the northern Gulf Coast well in advance of landfall.
- Tropical Storm Nestor is moving northeastward in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Tropical storm warnings have been posted for portions of the Florida Gulf Coast
- Nestor is expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Saturday.
- This system may also produce some surge flooding along and to the east of its track.
Nestor may strengthen a little more as water temperatures remain unusually warm in the Gulf of Mexico, but increasing upper-level winds over the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will help it move swiftly toward the northern Gulf Coast, should also produce wind shear, typically a strike against significant intensification of tropical cyclones.
Nestor is not expected to become a hurricane before it makes landfall Saturday morning. At this juncture it appears as though Gulf Shores may avoid the brunt of this system. I will continue to update as more information becomes available.